My View on A.I. and why it is a threat

If you follow me on twitter you might have seen two news stories that I recently shared; the first was Microsoft's Research Chief Eric Horvitz making claims that Artificial Intelligence [A.I.] will not run amok and will pose no threat to the human race - a story that I tweeted I did not agree with.  Today I tweeted another news story where Bill Gates former CEO of Microsoft has said he holds the opposite view and does see A.I. as a threat and that he can't fathom why others aren't worried at all.

I wanted to make this post to lay out why I agree with Bill and hold this view.  My reasoning maybe different to his but I believe the same baseline concern is shared.

As A.I. progresses and if it eventually gains consciousness and sentience then there is a question you have to ask yourself.  Will this natural evolution of something unnatural result in morality and ethics being inherent traits?  I have said many times "Mankind was never taught to be evil, it is in our nature" - I stand by this and believe that the reason our evil side is not as prominent is that morality helps guide us and prevent us from doing things that would be unethical.  That's not to say the same is true for all humans because it is not and we don't need to debate that, the presence of evil in society is self evident.

My concern is that humankind has committed some heinous atrocities throughout history even with morality being a trait we hold.  Those who abandoned all morals and ethics however are undoubtedly the worst.  When you remove the "human" component and act on a purely logical basis we do things that the majority of us would find hard to stomach.  During World War II there was a Nazi Doctor called Josef Mengele who committed some of these atrocities.  Among his gruesome experiments on humans was one particularly callous practice he had.  Having a fascination with twins he would take a set of twins and study them both testing on one twin and keeping the other healthy until the test subject died; once dead he would immediately kill the healthy twin and perform an autopsy on both at the same time.  What Dr Mengele did in these experiments was to discard all morality and concern for human life and work on a purely logical level.  As a result of many of his experiments not just those based on twins but the Nazi Eugenics programme too and associated research there were a number of medical advancements that we can "thank" the Nazis for, with one of the most prominent being In-Vitro Fertilisation [IVF] which would not be possible without the research the Nazis carried out.

I do not justify their means no matter the ends it achieved.  Likewise I do not justify many other technological advances that we have today as a result of the Second World War in general.  Now you can argue that we would have discovered this technology eventually and I don't dismiss that possibility but it is beside the point.  The point I am making here is that our restraint in what we are willing to do is something that marks us as a race, and in times of War and great desperation that restraint slips and you see the result.  Knowing this and knowing what humans have done in the absence of morality I have to pose the question of what a machine would do.

We are only as useful as the service we can provide.  As 3D printing advances and traditional manufacturing too; the necessity for human workers to construct replacement parts etc is diminished.  With an A.I. that gains sentience and consciousness it is fairly safe to say that it will not need human maintenance, it will be able to maintain itself and in the event of catastrophic failure another A.I. will be able to intervene - that is if they even deem that worthy.

There are a number of orders in nature that humankind actively opposes.  Natural selection has been all but suspended in terms of the human race.  We actively fight diseases and strive to improve our healthcare.  We seek to protect the weak and infirm and nurse them back to full health if we can.  Arguably in nature this would not happen.  You can debate the long term effects that has on our race another day.  There are animals too that we have kept alive if only for our need to farm them for consumption.  Cows, Pigs and Chickens as examples are three animals which if we did not need to consume it is debatable whether or not they would be extinct.  In the UK for example if we did not keep these animals for consumption the number of these found in the wild would be nil.  They would be animals we see in Zoos they would be that rare.  The reason for that is quite simply that they in turn consume resources that we would need in their absence.  Farmland needed for grazing today would be used for crops instead.  If for some reason we did not need to farm at all then our countryside would be significantly smaller than it is today and urbanisation would have spread much more rapidly.

Wild Pigs and Chickens are a concept that to many in the UK would seem alien.  So the question of why these animals are so high in number today is easily answered - we need them to survive.  In many ways humans would be pigs to A.I. and the question of our post-sentience population will ultimately depend on whether or not these A.I. need us.

You can laugh off my concerns and dismiss my view as being a crackpot stance.  I would like to leave you with something to consider however before you do.  If you remove all morality and dismiss the ethics, there is a case to be made for mass indiscriminate extermination of the human race.  I do not endorse this, I do not promote it and I certainly do not agree with it.  Likewise I would never put it into practice but the reality is there.  In terms of what we contribute to this planet versus what we take and the footprints we leave, there is a case for a considerable reduction in our population.  Our population growth is already unsustainable in its current form and many countries have put control measures into practice; how extreme would those measures become do you think in the absence of morality?  Without morality and without ethics you need only appoint an individual with no emotional connection to carry out the final act.  World War II taught us what this leads to in practice.

I'll leave you with a quote from Doctor Who - The Day of The Doctor where one of the Generals spoke of a weapon that had been created that had gained sentience:

How do you use a weapon of ultimate mass destruction when it can stand in judgement of you?

Equal Marriage (not quite)

Gay Marriage has been made legal in the UK [except Northern Ireland due to a veto made by the DUP under the Diarchy agreement primarily on religious grounds] but all is not quite what it seems.

We now have the equal right to get married as straight couples do but while entrance into these marriages are now legal, the same is not true for exits.  It is not legal grounds for divorce in the UK if your partner cheats on you with someone of the same sex - this applies to all marriages, straight and gay.  I say only straight and gay as legally there's no distinction between "Bi Marriage" etc.

What's interesting about this is that at first you can argue it's equal since the same rules apply to everyone but there is a counter argument.  While the sex grounds are the same for everyone this does not take into account sexuality.  In a straight couple it would be presumable if one person cheated it would be with someone of the opposite sex, this is the "default" to use a crude over simplification.  The "default" in a same sex marriage would be to cheat with someone of the same sex.

In reality sexuality should not come into play here at all.  Grounds for divorce on the basis of cheating should need only be that one partner cheated on the other with a third person - regardless of sex.  How many people will march for that equal right?  I'm willing to bet there aren't many.  For one to campaign for such a right would be to inherently support the idea that your marriage is not going to last - which I don't think many people would want to admit.  The whole idea of marriage after all is that you find someone you want to spend the rest of your life with.

This does pose a question about equal rights in general and what we do and do not campaign for and what we demand in general.  Realistically if we wanted equal marriage there should never have been separate legislation for gay marriages, the original marriage legislation should have been amended to remove references to gender and make one law apply to everyone, instead we have two separate laws which don't even have to be synchronised - I said the above applies to straight marriage and gay marriage which is true but changes to this law would be made for each type of marriage individually.  Adding cheating with someone of the same sex as grounds for divorce to one will not automatically add it to the other, the legislation would have to pass twice.

What is the meaning of life?

I used to think that the meaning of life was that life had no meaning and you were meant to give it meaning.  That life, was a gift.  You can believe in a God and believe they gave you life or you can stay a little more grounded and think of life as a gift from your parents as without both of them you wouldn't be here.  In a way then life is your first birthday present and probably the only one you will keep until your dying day.

That's what I used to think but recently my thoughts have been changing and my feelings are leading me to another conclusion.  I'm beginning to think that life is defined as a constant struggle against loneliness.  Both individually and collectively.  As an individual you will battle loneliness your entire life.  Some people gather friends and walk through life together - friendships don't always last and you can be surrounded by people one day and alone the next.  You can be completely alone in a crowded room and that's a pain I think most people have felt at some point in their lives. 

Finding a romantic love seems to be the path most people travel down, in the hopes that they find someone who they will live happily ever after with.  That's a puerile sentiment however, it's an overly simplified way at looking at relationships.  Finding someone you can love is one thing, finding someone who loves you is another - but even if you manage both of these, staying together isn't straight forward either.  Relationships take a lot of work.  You both have to communicate and you both have to be committed.  If you're not then you will often find yourself breaking up and parting ways or you find yourselves in the friend zone where love becomes love of a different kind.  Ending up there is not necessarily a bad thing, there are many pressures and expectations that are relinquished when you remove the complications of being in an actual relationship.  Perhaps most prominent is that the ability to trust someone becomes less intense.  That might just be because there is "less riding on it"

What people don't tell you when you are a kid and you see the movies and the games and hear the stories of happy ever after, is that you might not find them.  That's something that's not easy to tell someone; which is probably why it's something we don't really acknowledge.  The idea of never finding love, at least in the three mediums I said above, is often attributed to people who are cold, careless, callous, and bitter.  Generally "the bad guy" - the idea that if you are good, kind, caring, and generous you will find love is yet another over simplification.  You can be all those things and still not find love.  It would certainly not be for the lack of trying for many people.  No the reality that you might not find someone is something that we don't like talking about so we ignore it like the white elephant in the room.  Yet you think it.  Everyone knows its there.  When you're alone and have only your thoughts to keep you company you look at it, sometimes only a fleeting glance but at others you sit and stare.  Its foreboding presence towers over you.

I asked on twitter why anyone would have an empty relationship.  It was in response to something that happened to two friends of mine, two that became one and then became none.  Without going into all the details here suffice to say that one of them used the other.  The reason I think is that they were paralysed by the fear of being alone.

I don't have many friends but the ones I have are close to my heart and I would do anything for them and I know they would do anything for me.  I don't have many friends because I never learned how to "fake it" and maintain empty friendships.  The kind where you are friends for the sake of it, for some potential gain, or for the sake of not wanting to be alone.  I can't do that.  If I don't care about you I can't pretend that I do - which is why I find it hard to believe the couple above lasted a year and a half if they knew; one of them had to have lied to the other, every day of their relationship to be able to do that.

As a race mankind has asked many times are we alone in the Universe.  That is quite poetic as it echoes our individual fight against loneliness; as a race we look to the stars united and ask the same question - can we find life out there?

Just as there are 7 billion people on Earth and the possibility certainly exists of finding someone; the Universe is vast and mathematically given its size the probability that life does exist is almost certain.  However just as the likelihood that we would be able to find it is slim the likelihood that you can find "the one" if they exist is slim too.  If "the one" exists you can't even assert whether they would live in the same country as you. 

If the likelihood of finding the one is so slim then does that mean by virtue of the number of people in relationships that we eventually widen our net, conceding things which would have once dismissed someone as a possible love interest?  Some people say you eventually "settle" - how many people around you in relationships do you think settled?   The idea that you "settle down" is not meant to imply that meaning its meant to mean something else but the more I think about it the more I would argue that's what it actually means.  "Settling down" is essentially giving up on finding "the one" and looking instead for "any one" - which in and of itself is sad - if both are not committed.  If you settle then settle for life, don't settle for someone until something "better" comes along.  The couple I mentioned above broke up when one of them found someone who for all intents and purposes was their ideal partner.  I don't know if he was "the one" but he was certainly pretty close to what they had always wanted.  That didn't do anything to comfort their ex however, as you can imagine they were heartbroken and I am not even sure whether they ever found anyone else.

There is however something you should remember.  Although the person that first said this to me was a hypocrite, the sentiment remains: to be alone does not have to mean you are lonely.  Loneliness is the absence of happiness when you are alone.  If you can be happy in life, even when you are alone then you'll never be lonely.  You can define happiness however you like it will be different things to different people.  I guess if happiness has no set meaning but one we set out to define then we come full circle.  Maybe the question should simply be what does it mean to be happy rather than what is the meaning of life?

Show me your cock?

In the world of Gay online dating there is an expectation to share photos with one another not just of your face but of a more intimate nature.  If you have no picture at all on a dating site you're usually dismissed entirely which is quite strange from a community that deals with coming out on an almost daily basis.  More intimate than this however most guys ask for body shots, not just a selfie but a full frontal nude picture.  Depending on the site you use or app you're also asked for cock shots, even if you use a site that has less of a reputation for this kind of thing the request usually comes quite quickly after chatting to someone.

I hate this.  For one I hate cameras and taking photos in general but the whole process is quite degrading when you stop and think about it.  The person making the request is basically saying they can't decide whether they like you until they see you naked. In how many other social situations is that actually acceptable?  If you met someone in a club or at work or school, you don't ask to see them naked before you decide if you like them.

The online dating world seems to have sacrificed the chivalry and romance of dating and reduced it to something akin to online shopping, where they want to order a boyfriend by entering values they have to match, literally ordering by size and weight, colour, etc.  When did we give up on developing emotional and intellectual connections first?  When did we become so superficial?

Beyond judging ourselves for what we reduced it to, what does this say about our community?
I'm not being entirely fair to single out the Gay community but it's the only one I have personal experience dealing with.  According to straight mates their dating sites usually lead to the same thing so they are just as guilty.

What does it say about the judgement you place on people that refuse?  The immediate assumptions are usually that you're either too old or young, too out of shape or too thin, or some other condition that lies outside your "ideal", among other things that people accuse you of if you refuse.

When did finding someone stop being a case of showing each other your heart and become a case of show me your cock?


Being heard on Twitter

Twitter is a bit like standing in a crowd and tweeting is like speaking out loud.  The people that follow you are paying attention to you and the people that aren't following you are just looking around.  The more people someone is following - that is the more people in the crowd they are paying attention to - the harder it becomes for them to hear what you are saying.

In practice this can be explained by looking at a typical twitter user.  If they are following more than a given number of people, let's say 60, then provided those people all make one tweet per hour, then that person sees 60 tweets per hour in their timeline.  The more those people tweet the more the timeline fills up.  The longer they go in between checking their timeline the more tweets still that amount there.

If:

- You follow 60 people
- They each tweet once per hour on average
- You go 24 hours between checking your timeline

Then:

You can expect to find 1,440 tweets waiting for you when you finally decide to check it.  Follow more people and that number increases.  Tweeting once per hour is quite unrealistic for a statistical average.  Even if the majority of the people you follow don't tweet much they will likely surpass that on average alone, further to this there are twitter power users who tweet a lot more than this. 

In order to end up in Twitter jail [temporary revocation of capacity to tweet imposed by twitter as an anti-spam mechanism] you need to post 100 tweets per hour or 1,000 tweets per day on average - whichever you hit first.

If you then consider the 90-9-1 rule and apply it to the activity of these users you could argue:

If:

- You follow 100 people
- 1% of those people post 1,000 tweets per day on average
- 9% of those people post 100 tweets per day on average
- 90% of those people post 1 tweet per hour on average
- You go 24 hours between checking your timeline

Then:

You can expect to find around 4,060 tweets waiting for you when you do finally check it.

Of course there will be users who check twitter more than once a day - most probably would.  But the number of times within each hour on average does not reduce the readability of tweets, the only reduction is the amount of time between your last check and your next check of twitter.  Assuming you checked it all the time when you were awake to try and keep up and assuming you got 8 hours sleep you would still end up with approximately 1,353 tweets to catch up on due to falling asleep.

This is only a token demonstration of the Maths that go into tweet "exposure" and the figures here were deliberately  chosen to be easy to calculate they are not representative of a real world example.  For one people on twitter tend to follow others who tweet a lot, they tend not to follow people who hardly tweet at all - that further increases the number above.  For another, the number of people that you follow will likely be much higher than those given above, these are reflective of a relatively new account.  If you have been using twitter for some time then the number of people you follow is much more likely to be in the hundreds or even in the thousands which throws all of the above into minuscule proportions compared to the reality of the numbers you will be dealing with.

So how do you get heard on twitter?  Well for companies that want to market something the real options are either to pay for prominent tweet placement - sponsored tweets - or to try and achieve success at viral marketing through trending.  Both are not easy to achieve as in the case of sponsored tweets there will be a lot of people that just ignore them and a lot more who use services like AdBlock Plus which hides them altogether.

The only effective way of being heard on twitter is through engagement.  That means you have to actually speak to people as well as posting regular tweets and that involves using @ mentions and starting actual conversations with people.  It may be a radical concept for you to understand but to be successful at social networking you have to be social.

Being social can involve one on one interaction as described above or it can involve integrating into an existing community.  In this regard there are quite a few on twitter.  There are the most obvious fandoms which centre around the cult of celebrity.  There are others devoted to specific causes.  There are political groups, music groups, even porn related groups commonly referred to as "twitter after dark".  There's also the cliques that you can try and break into.  Just like high school there are small groups of twitter accounts that all follow each other - integrating there is not easy however and newcomers will often be met with hostility.

If you're reading this and getting the feeling like twitter is high school all over again, you're not far wrong.  The people on twitter who are massively popular with millions of followers didn't become popular because of twitter, it's just another way to let people worship them.  Those with thousands of followers typically act in much the same way with the exception that they usually have no other claim to fame than being twitter famous.  There's also a lot to be said about "anons" or anonymous twitter users who don't share any detail about their real identity, most of these people have more than one account on the platform and there is substantial disparity between their accounts.

What all this comes down to is one simple question - do you want to be yourself or do you want to be popular on twitter?  If the answer is that you want to be yourself then you need to give up chasing numbers and do just that - be yourself.  If the answer is that you want to be popular on twitter then you'll have to consider how far you want to go to get it.  It is very rare that you will get very far being yourself and not playing a character.  Twitter is at the end of the day a game, and if you want to win then you need to know how to play it, who you need on your team, who you are ready to play against and who you can handle losing to should it come to that.  I know several anons whose tweets have absolutely no reflection on who they are as a person outside twitter.  Much the same way that many youtubers are nothing like their online persona.  If you want to make it on twitter you need to be Regina George.  You need to be the bitch that can be nice to someone you hate and smile as you kill.

If you want to be popular then tweet all you want, about whatever you want, but remember it doesn't help you at all unless you are being heard on twitter.

Back At Square One

"Being back at square one" is a phrase that is often said with derision and interpreted to be a bad thing, as if you have somehow failed or that you have lost something - but when you think about it, being back at square one isn't necessarily a bad thing.  It's an opportunity, some would say a setback but even that you can argue against.

When you move forward through life you choose paths.  You make decisions that lead you further down those paths.  The further you go down a single path however the more your options dwindle and the less direction you can take.  Square one is the only place where you are at your maximum potential - that's a phrase in itself that is often misused.  You are not at your maximum potential when you have achieved all you can, potential is possibility, untapped energy that has yet to be used.  You're standing with the possibility of taking any direction you want.  You can completely change your life.  Potential is the foundation that underpins square one, and ultimately every step you take away from it expends some of that energy in exchange for getting you wherever that step leads you. 

We often walk down paths in life and spend years pursuing something only to fall at the final hurdle or give us along the way or realise that this was not the path we should have taken.  The further you travel the harder it gets to return to square one.  Although never truly impossible it can sometimes feel that way, especially when you reach a dead end and come to a complete stop with nowhere to go.

Is it a setback to return to square one?  Only if you take the same path again yes, otherwise no, as no matter where you were if you were travelling down a path that did not lead to what you ultimately want then every single step is a step no closer.  Being thrown back to square one is not a setback in this sense, if anything it's a step closer to your goal, by putting yourself in a position where you can actually achieve your goal.

In the Big Bang Theory there is a quote where Penny asks Sheldon if he thinks she's made a mistake and his reply was simply, no, and he said: "The best way to achieve a goal is to devote 100% of your time and energy to it."

No matter where you are, if the path you are walking down is not leading where you want to go, then you need to stop and go back to a place where you can actually get where you want to go - that usually means going back to square one.  It can be daunting, ever more so the further down a path you have walked.  You need to focus on what you want in life more than anything and put aside your hang ups and feelings of failure.  The only true failure is the failure to try.  So look on the bright side, look at the possibility, look at the potential and never be disappointed with where you end up.  It's never too late to start again, that's just part of life.  People say you don't often get second chances in life - that's bollocks.  Every single day you wake up you have the chance to change your life - no-one is saying, me least of all, that it will be easy, but the gains outweigh the losses.  You can't put a price on happiness.

Be all you can be and stay positive, even when you are, "back at square one"

I don't care

Those 3 words are said a lot online, paired with, or replaced by the synonymous "Look at all the fucks I give" which is usually rhetorical.  I don't think it's a case of people caring less however I think it's a case that we are changing what we care about.

I grew up in a small town where everyone knew everything about everyone.  There were times that I hated that, because it meant privacy was virtually non-existent.  I did notice a shift in attitudes and behaviour though between generations.  My generation and the ones that came after me were less concerned about knowing so much about other people.  They became more focused on knowing as much as they could about their friends and the people closer to them.

There is a valid argument that this could simply be due to population growth and the point reached at which it's not practical to know everything about everyone - although I would counter that with the six degrees of separation argument, however I'll put this to side for now.  My argument isn't based on that, but rather based on 2 things - technology and boredom.

The generations that came before me did not have the technology that we have today.  They weren't as connected as we are.  They still had their friends but the necessity to keep up to date on what other people were doing or where they were, was ultimately fulfilled by gossips.  That is my theory.  The people who "knew everything" and could fill you in were in essence the human precursors to using social networks or google to stalk someone and see what they are doing.  As technology has advanced that social role has become redundant to an extent.  That explains the "How" of my theory as for the "Why" element I would argue that was boredom.

The reason most people use social networks and the internet in general as far as I can see isn't really for anything productive, the majority are staving off boredom and just looking for something to do.  They are looking for entertainment in other words.  I think older generations were more inclined to find that in the lives of the people around them.  To put it bluntly they treated everyone in the town as a living breathing live soap opera.  The drama of peoples' lives became their entertainment.

I said my generation was less concerned with this and I think that to a point this is because we have "better" things to do.  By that I mean most people really don't care what's going on in others' lives.  There will still be those who enjoy the drama as there always will be but I think they are fewer and further between.

We live in a world of expanding horizons and at times that can make this planet feel small.  I may be thousands of miles away from you but you're reading my words just as easy as if I was sitting in the room next to you actually saying them.  I think we have become more focused on our interests.  In my case am I interested in what other people think of random shit on twitter - yes, because you actually form connections with people who have similar interests.  Do I care why 2 random people I've never even spoken to who happen to live in the same town got a divorce - no, I don't care.